Those following the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on February 24, 2022 are now waiting for amassed Russian forces to once again go on the offensive in the Donbas. Despite Russian mouth pieces claiming otherwise, I think it clear that the infamous 40 mile convoy of Russian tanks, artillery, armored personnel carriers, and other military vehicles that hit the road and then stalled out on the way to Kyiv were intended to take the Ukrainian capital. The world saw how that Russian campaign failed miserably.
In the campaign Russian had all the advantages. This was a battle of Putin’s choosing. Russia, unlike the Ukrainian defenders, chose when the campaign would commence. Russia set the day and the hour to attack and the point from which to attack. Russia had as much time as they needed or wanted to gather the ideal mix of personnel and weaponry to fit their campaign strategy to counter the Ukrainian defenders.
Ukraine, on the other hand, had to gather their forces at the spur of the moment to meet the challenge. Ukraine certainly had some inkling that an invasion was coming and had been forewarned, they were not totally unprepared. The exact time and place, mode and manner of attack, though, was unknown until the attack actually commenced.
Even with all the advantages above, what happened? The Russian forces attacking Kyiv were soundly defeated and beaten back, to the point where they fled back to Belarussia to regroup.
So now those Russian forces who for the most part were already defeated by the Ukrainians have amassed again to attack the Ukrainians in the Donbas. The ranks of the various units have been filled in, ammunition restocked, and holes patched over, but can anyone expect that after maybe a few weeks these units are stronger than when these same units went into Ukraine initially? The 40 milelong Russian convoy parked on the road to attack Kyiv was ominous, the decidedly less dense eight or nine milelong convoy on the road to Donbas was not quite so scary. After seeing the fate of that first convoy, can the morale of Russian soldiers now possibly be higher than their morale then?
And what of the Ukrainian defenders? They have certainly suffered loses. But Russia’s relentless artillery and missile strikes against residential apartment complexes and farming villages, and the brutality against civilians uncovered upon the retreat of Russian forces from places like Bucha, will only strengthen the resolve and will of Ukrainian forces. As far as weaponry, not only does Ukraine reportedly have more tanks now than when the Russians invaded due to the invaders’ proclivity to flee the fight, but Western nations have been pouring weapons into Ukraine, including now more advanced and heavier weapons.
So what of Putin’s “special military operation” 2.0? Only time will tell how the Russian offensive against the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas plays out, but in my mind the only Russian soldiers that are really looking like they understand the upcoming fight are the ones refusing to enter into this battle.